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Loyalty Wins: My Prediction Facebook is Worth More than YouTube October 12, 2006

Posted by John in Technology.

Yahoo should “pony up”.  I will make a bold prediction.  Facebook will sell for more than YouTube.  There are many reasons which I won’t bore you with but here is one reason:  Facebook has a ‘real’ audience.  Facebooks audience is ‘sticky’ (as my daugher would say”that sounds so Web 1.0″) or put another way ‘loyal audience”.  Facebook numbers will grow and their churn will be low compared to Myspace and YouTube.  Although MySpace and YouTube have ‘huge’ audience, their audience is somwhat fickle.  What I mean is that the audience isn’t that loyal and would switch.  As Facebook grows they become inimitiable.   

I did some research since May and found the following results on user loyalty:  1) Facebook, 2) MySpace,  3) Youtube 

In my opinion the core feature that drives this loyalty is “user engagement”.  Facebook has the best audience engagement features.  This will drive their valuation well over $1.65 billion.  Lets see if my prediction is correct?


1. Robert Scoble - October 12, 2006

John: do you see people sticking with Facebook after they get out of college? If you’re right that people stick around, then you’re probably going to turn out to be right. If you’re wrong, though, and kids stop using it as soon as they are in the workforce, then they are only worth a small fraction of YouTube.

YouTube has a clearer advertising path too.

2. John Furrier - October 12, 2006

It’s a bold prediction but very plausible. If Facebook has just a college verision then they will be toast. I agree that YouTube has a clearer and easier ad path given the traffic and now Google, but Facebook can extend to beyond college very seemlessly.

No doubt that Video is where the action is but I see user engagement being a big deal. Most of the users who use Facebook are very nested into the app. To me it’s not about the teen or college market. With Yahoo’s synergy and video operation the value can be very large.

3. dave davison - October 17, 2006

John: inflating the bubble for PodTech? If you are high on the loyalty value of Facebook and see their network expanding way beyond the college crowd – why not explore an alliance with Facebook for PodTech – use the ScobleShow to promote the concept and offer Facebook members the opportunity to archive their vlogs with you. Note that Facebook currently offers members the opportunity to link their personal blogs to the Notes section of Facebook – why not vlogs too? A more sophisticated version of YouTube.

4. John Furrier - October 17, 2006

Not sure I see it as a bubble inflating but instead an opportunity for new product and media opportunities.

I love your idea and would love to get facebook to work with PodTech.

5. Michael Bailey - October 18, 2006


I don’t dispute that FaceBook might have a “sticky” following, but to me they’re just another ‘island’ floating around on the Net.

YouTube went viral with the ability to easily link to and share the videos. Flickr went viral with a similiar ability.

I haven’t seen any FaceBook content on any other website, which to me means that I have a zero percent chance of ever going to their site.

With the latest population numbers showing 300 million Americans, I’m predicting that it would be crazy for that to NOT become the new target market – why would one settle for a one-to-one interaction between their content and a single computer user, when one could grab a one-to-four or more interaction if they get to the people while they are sitting in their living rooms?

I’m constantly trying not to forget about the ‘average computer user’…They don’t really understand the technology, barely check email, don’t read your blog, and could care less about how things work.

Keeping them in mind, developing stuff for them so that they can easily “get it” – yes, that’s where it’s going to be. Classic case-in-point? AOL

Michael B

6. Facebook becoming the Social Network for Professionals? Loyalty, Trust, Convienence « John Furrier - July 6, 2007

[…] In October I wrote a post that was not talked about but I said that Facebook was more valuable than ….  Why? Loyalty was my original point but now I would add that convienence to being part of a group and social media.  Face it blogging is hard to stay on top of.  Plus blogging isn’t help by the idoits out there like Nick Douglass of Valleywag who writes lies and passes them off as ‘matters of fact’.  Having a inaccurate and hurtful voice isn’t what blogging is about so amatuers like Nick Douglass will have a hard time surviving.  People want to be with and work with people that they know and trust. […]

7. indian jewelry stores san diego - January 5, 2012

You can do all the stat analysis you want. Throw velocity readings in there too. The fact is he hasnt been the same pitcher since that spot start.

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