Loyalty Wins: My Prediction Facebook is Worth More than YouTube October 12, 2006Posted by John in Technology.
Yahoo should “pony up”. I will make a bold prediction. Facebook will sell for more than YouTube. There are many reasons which I won’t bore you with but here is one reason: Facebook has a ‘real’ audience. Facebooks audience is ‘sticky’ (as my daugher would say”that sounds so Web 1.0″) or put another way ‘loyal audience”. Facebook numbers will grow and their churn will be low compared to Myspace and YouTube. Although MySpace and YouTube have ‘huge’ audience, their audience is somwhat fickle. What I mean is that the audience isn’t that loyal and would switch. As Facebook grows they become inimitiable.
I did some research since May and found the following results on user loyalty: 1) Facebook, 2) MySpace, 3) Youtube
In my opinion the core feature that drives this loyalty is “user engagement”. Facebook has the best audience engagement features. This will drive their valuation well over $1.65 billion. Lets see if my prediction is correct?