Dave pens a thoughtful vision on Facebook. Nick Denton highlights that Google was an anomoly and others that try to replicate that will die. Eric at Barrons says “what if they can’t make money on advertising?”
Dave Winer on Facebook: It’s worth alot or not much at all. It depends on what they do.
The question is “will Facebook intersect with a killer revenue model that most aren’t seeing right now” – its pretty clear to me – I’ll let them figure it out. Worst case for Facebook is that they fumble for a revenue model rather than leveraging their core asset “it’s user base that is the distinct trusted communities” and intersect the market on the ‘new ad model’ thats coming around the corner.
Dave Winer suggest that they listen to the market and shows other examples of failures of companies that had this kind of ‘pole position’ – eg IBM with PCjr and Hypercard – there are others in all sectors.
Like Dave others feel the same way… Dave says “I’m tired of building networks of friends, over and over. Next time I do it, it’ll be for keeps. It’ll be the “real” social network, the one all future social networks build on..”