Liz Gannes at NewTeeVee takes a stab at the online video market for 2008. Great first start. In her post there is a lot of guessing. Why? Because online video isn’t working? Why? It isn’t targeted. No matter what these guys want to say it isn’t. I’m all with the optimism.
Liz: you heard it hear first – the killer format is long form video ad units – MicroCreative. All the Scoble naysayers will roll on the floor in disagreement.
Liz: Keep and eye on long form video as a viable ad unit. My former company PodTech is focusing on that because it’s working. It isn’t sexy and isn’t close to scaling but I predict you will see long form online video be the dominant format. You heard it here first.
There is a ton of coverage from NY’s Ad:Tech on why everyone thinks the preroll is dead. IMH the invideo efforts and swifts are the only game in town right now but they will be the ‘banner of video’. They will give way to contextual video navigation – something Google understands but not many others.
If I were Microsoft, Yahoo and AOL, I would get off my butt and go contextual video navigation asap. Milk the Invideo, overlays, and swifts as much as you can but get to contextual video navigation fast.
Silicon Valley Technology Blog - John Furrier 
They’re called infomercials. They work. But does Scoble really want to be the next Ron Popeil?
Hi Erik: What’s different now? Infomercials work. Lets examine the concept of infomercials online – not cable or advertorial trade pub BS. The online advertising business only works because of keyword-Informercials. In the Web 1.0 the paid keyword is an infomercial. Buy your keyword and setup a “targeted’ long form ad – the landing page. You have contextual advertising – adwords and adsense developed only after GoTo (Overture) took heat over their business model.
Where NewTeeVee misses is the web 2.0 version of the infomercial is about targeting and the landing page version of the video. It will be a targeted informercial. That’s good for user experience because they are expecting it and/or want it. Hello Holy Grail.
My point on Scoble was because Scoble doesn’t do long form ads – I only referenced him because he took alot to heat for his long videos.
Infomercials get viewers in a channel flipping paradigm, you’re fascinated by the personality, or the ludicrousness of the product. It’s a decedent of the carnival side show.
Will enough people actually opt in to them to be effective in a non-stumbled-upon environment?
I don’t agree with you Erik. You’re talking about QVC or Home Shopping Network. I think what John is trying to say is that the paid keyword is the opt-in then the user gets to a landing page. Hell I’ve even filled out forms to continue. On the internet everything that is good for users is opt-in. That’s what is so great about keyword advertising. The user only clicks on the link if they want to navigate to a page or info. The advertisers know this too which is why they bid up the prices for the best ‘info-keywords’.
I don’t think that long form will be a hit this year. If I were Podtech I would focus on ad insertion for now but still do the long ad content.
John: been following you on twitter. Man you are one smart mofo. You are so right on again! Now I’m reminded why I loved your podcasts 2 years ago. I have to admit I abandoned Podtech when you went with all those other boring shows. Glad to see you blogging and twittering.
TMAN
Erik and JR: my point is that the net isn’t a stumble environment (I know stumbleupon is huge). It is value based upon user experience. search and navigation are the primary assets to great user experience which ties directly to online adverting. Stumbleupon is a random navigation aid – like I’m Feeling Lucky. Google didn’t build their business on I’m Feeling Lucky but instead great search then navigation.
In video search sucks real bad and navigation is worse. You’ll see player based navigation. Meaning assets around the players based on contextual content in the main frame.
It’s no secret that I hate preroll, midroll, and post roll ads.
TMAN: thanks I hope to do some podcasts soon. I’m actually recording a series now called The Discovery Series – about search/discovery/navigation; both in terms of tech and new content.