Bold Prediction: Twitter will fail.
I love twitter and use it daily but what strikes me is the lack of ‘technical competitive strategy’. Twitter runs the risk of being so open that it might not ever make money. Ok so everyone is talking about monetization, but my take is different. If I worked at Twitter I could have that business at $100m fast – it just seems an easy thing to do. The key to their success is the platform and the concept called ‘value leakage’.
Everyday when a new twitter clients comes out Twitter loses value. This may seem counterproductive but in a systems business the main vendor needs a ‘core’. It seems that Twitter might just lose their core value if it doesn’t implement some technical competitive strategy – meaning lock in a value core and build on it. Twitter to me just seems to be a runaway success and out of control from both a scale and sustainable perspective.
I love Twitter but their braintrust needs to jam on a value core to build on their openness.