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Google Crash – Come on Please November 29, 2006

Posted by John in Technology.
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Seeking Alpha (a site that I’ve been liking lately) has a post on Google refering to what Dave Winer said.  Dave Winer states the obvious.  Come on Dave saying that startups (and web 2.0) will burst when Google crashes is like saying that increase in interest rates will burst the housing bubble. 

Face it Google has become a ‘bellweather’ for the market.  If Google crashes many other things will burst.  Personally I think that Google will be hugely successful.  The net is growing globally and Google will reap those benefits.  That being said to state that a startup is completely dependent on Google is insane.  There will massive infrastructure and software shifts and changes that will occur in the next decade.  This will be opportunity for another Google like company and yes it will be a Web 2.x company. 

I have to disagree with Dave on this debate.  Certainly Google can buy up the net but to say that others can’t compete is screwed up. 

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Comments»

1. Scott Kirsner - November 29, 2006

Great post, John. One additional observation, in the form of a parlor game… let’s name all the companies who’ve been big acquirers of Web 2.0 and digital media companies over the past year:

- Google (buying YouTube)
- Yahoo (buying Flickr, Jumpcut, etc.)
- Viacom/MTV (buying Atom Entertainment, iFilm)
- News Corp./Fox Interactive Media (buying MySpace)

If one or two of those companies saw their stock prices drop, and stopped doing as many acquisitions as they have been, the pressure on the others to acquire companies defensively would diminish. Then who would all the Web 2.0 start-ups sell to?

2. John Furrier - November 29, 2006

Scott,
Great observation. Alot of the bubblish behavior actually isn’t coming from VCs but from existing media companies as they watch new companies and Google take over their ‘turf’. The media ecosystem is under full assault and it (media ecosystem) will fall into balance via a highened M/A environment. Add to the fact that major IP infrastructure innovation is around the corner. The software side of the market has already had a makeover because of open source.

It is one of the most fun times for an entrepreneur. That is a conversation that I want to have with folks.

btw: congrats on your new book

3. Scripting News for 11/29/2006 « Scripting News Annex - November 29, 2006

[...] John Furrier: “Saying that startups will burst when Google crashes is like saying that increase in interest rates will burst the housing bubble.”  [...]

4. Matt Terenzio - November 29, 2006

Nice John,

It’s rare that I disagree with Dave Winer on tech related posts, but this one didn’t seem right to me either, even if there is some truth to it, as you pointed out.

I’m glad I found your blog. I was aware of your name and of PodTech for a while now, but it takes a link from DW to get me to subscribe. Weird and cool in a way since it was a post we both contended.

I’m subscribed!

5. John Wall - November 30, 2006

I can see the google stock price flattening, but crashing? Judging from the changes in the advertising world I think the crash will be in 30-second TV spots, magazines and other media that Google will continue to bleed. I’m surprised they don’t do a 10 for 1 split to make it “feel” less inflated.

6. Peter Pang - February 1, 2007

Google is an innovative company, it will crash when it stop pumping out new stuff. But right now, it’s still expanding its business in every corner of the net.

7. motionocom - July 6, 2007

This ia a very good article, however i believe Google deserves their dominance on the internet, without google can you imagine how bad the internet would have been? we would still be using sites such as altavista, infoseek, and never really finding what we are looking for while at the same time being exposed to all sorts of pop ups and heavyly animated and annoying ads and so on, Google took internet to the next level and they know it, with the power and resources they have they will make internet even better, Of course competition is healthy and Google should not purchase everything right and left such as Youtube and DoubleClick, but at the same time their purchase of Youtube and Doubleclick gives rise to new companies becoming more passionate about the internet, for example when Google purchased Youtube for 1.6billion, suddenly 1000′s of new video sharing sites started popping up, such as Jumpcut by Yahoo, Motiono.Com, Metacafe, and many others.


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