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Bubble: Yes; Avoidable: Yes September 4, 2006

Posted by John in Technology.
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Robert has a great post today on the froth of the bubble.  Dead 2.0 also has a clear view (which I agree with) on the interview on Techcrunch.  Yes we are in a bubble and it is avoidable.  To many people in Silicon Valley have lived through the past bubble so I don’t see the irrational behavior being as distructive as it was in 1998-2000.

The bubble can be avoided.  The key to success is to look past the bubble hype. Debates on the bubble…Of course we are in a bubble.  There is a massive shift in the economics and wealth of the ‘netarchitecture’ going on right now. There will always be ad revenue in user or audience based models. The issue is that the ad model doesn’t and will not translate from what it is today to the new market environment that is developing.

Keys to avoid the bubble:  enter the market with a clear sustainable plan… build a great team and execute a business/revenue model that generates cash flow and market position. From that point on competing on value will determine who stays around.

I like the view of Ben Barren… he basically says get into the game (enter the market), hang around (develop market position), and then scale up at the right time (turn on the scalable revenue model) … 

Ben’s actual quote (love it) ..”Basically bootstrap for as long as humanly possible, pain and all – then nitro your turbo up at the right time. Fast and Furious.”

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